For the first time in the modern history of technology, sales of smartphones have outgrown those of desktop computers. Source of this information: 97.3 KIRO fm radio channel which feeds me with all kinds of informational tidbits during my short drives to and from client meetings throughout each day. Sometimes I have wondered if I was like Jim Carey in Truman Show and the radio is a brainwash conspiracy targeted at me, but obviously that’s least likely to be the case. Coming back to the original topic of the post – and my first one from a mobile device – what does increasing sales of smartphones over desktops mean?
* Posted from WordPress for Windows Phone (this line is in the middle of the post for a reason — coming up shortly)
Does it mean that desktops will soon become obsolete as people will start using mobile devices? That is not going to happen because mobile devices are good consumers of information, not producers. As an example, I started off writing this blog on my 2 weeks new Windows Phone 7 using the Word Press free app that I had downloaded. At the point before the asterisk in this post, I saved the draft, and when I tried to edit it to continue what I was writing, a lack of vertical scroll bar prevented me from taking the cursor to the end of the post. I had to give up, and here I am, back on my loyal laptop (which works perfectly when it is not crashing) trying to complete my blog post.
So firstly, I don’t think that desktops and laptops have any major threat because of increase in smartphone sales. People will still need to continue to work from their offices (or sometimes telecommute or work from home), however its hard to imagine an information worker spending his day in front of the mobile device as opposed to a large computer screen. What smartphones are bringing is the ability to remain connected even on the go, which in a way increases the productivity of mankind, while adding certain perils like email fixation which can even lead to road accidents causing an attrition in God’s universal corporation.
Secondly, the comparison of desktop versus smartphone sales is not one one of apples to apples itself. The market for desktops, which have been around for a couple of decades is much more saturated as compared to smartphones, which are relatively newer kids on the block. Moreover you are almost forced to upgrade your smartphone every 2 years (at least in the US) owing to the contracts you sign with the cellular service providers. Desktops, on the other hand, have a larger life as a product with no such forced hardware upgrade requirements.
Let the desktop versus mobile phone battle fight itself out over the next few decades. The ultimate advancement in technology according to me will be ‘no’ visible device, not even an implanted one. That will happen when technological advancements on biotechnology front will connect the data formats in our brains to the underlying binary formats generated by computing devices. Long way to go, but telepathy could be a reality.